Sheikh Rasheed : Game Over ?

A salam o Alykum

Sheikh Rasheed is not just a name of a politician but a history , a story of self made person. One may disagree to his style of politics , his affiliation with dictators , his opportunistic nature and sometime selfish way of politics but he is among those few political leaders who come up from grass root level , work hard since their youth to achieve glory , a middle class person who is still living in same locality where he used to live in his youth era.
Watching him smoking a cigar , after his defeat in his own city where he ruled for more than 25 years , was not a pleasant scene for me at least.
Its a bit difficult for me to analyze the defeat of Sheikh Rasheed.It may be because of the reason that personally i do not agree that he lost the battle. I think he rightly said that he has already won by attracting attention of whole Punjab govt. , PML-N leader Nawaz shareef , President of Pakistan Asif Zardari , Whole Pakistani media just for one bi-election.

Who was asking for a representation of Rawalpindi in National Assembly ?

We have to consider the fact punjab govt headed by PML(n) did not want to organize this bi-election in the name of law & order situation and it was Sheikh Rasheed's effort because of which supreme court ordered to start election proceedings in this constituency.It was sheikh rasheed who brought electoral Christmas in this city where all routine activities were like a frozen snow under the shadow of suicide bombings.If residents of NA-55 would enjoy any benefits from their elected representative in future , they have to be thankful to sheikh rasheed for taking this issue to court and organizing election otherwise so called guardian of pindi PML(n) was not even in favor of this election.

Did he choose the right time to participate in election?

It may be a debatable point that whether he choose the right time for his participation in election or it was a bit early.He lost the election in 2008 with more than a margin of 60,000 votes .Are two years enough for his political recovery OR for unpopularity of his opponent party?Specially when he knew that he has to fight against a party who is heading the punjab government and it is almost impossible in Pakistani election to win a bi-election against a ruling party.
Some people may argue that he should have waited for next general election , it would give him more chance to recapture the attention of pindi people also after ruling for 4-5 years in government it would be very hard for PML(n) to regain its position in next general elections.
But personally i endorse his decision of contesting this election.I think this was the best time for telling his supporters that he is still in business and can get sheer amount of votes even against ruling party.

Was he aware of the possible results ?

Sheikh Rasheed is a seasoned politician and i do not think so that he was unaware of this result.If you look closely to Nawaz-Rasheed relationship in last couple of years , so its more about ego and self esteem rather than genuine politics.After the humiliating defeat in 2008 , Rasheed wants to prove his critics specially PML(n) that he has still enough fuel to worry central leadership of their party.It was not a shakeel awan vs sheikh rasheed but rather

Nawaz Shareef Ego Vs Sheikh Rasheed self-pride

Nawaz shareef wanted to humiliate him once again so he gave the ticket to an ordinary worker of PML(n) and was planning not to even focus on provincial level on this election , he was in state of arrogance where he thought that if he gives ticket to a dummy than people will vote to that dummy instead of sheikh rasheed.
But later due to intense focus of media on this constituency and extra ordinary efforts of sheikh rasheed which awoke shareef camp from their hang over.
Sheikh Rasheed wanted to give a jolt to peaceful bedrooms of Pml(n) camps through this election , he wanted them to feel his presence , feel his threat in rawalpindi , and surely he got success in it.He alone tackled 14 MPAs , 5 MNAs , dozens of bureaucratic officers of punjab government. Ch. Nisar , Khawaja Saad Rafique , Khawaja Asif , Haneef Abbasi , even Mian Nawaz Shareef himself have to take part in election campaign of their candidate. Its true that this bi-election was first of its kind which attracted so much attention in country politics with so much turn out.

His election strategy

I think he rightly played his cards , made alliances with Jamiat ulama islam,Tehreek-e-Jafria and other smaller but influential players.Praying on BB monument was a clever tactical gesture from him through which he was able to get support of local PPP workers.Though there are some rumors that he got votes from PPP , but i do not think so that workers go out to vote when their party is not participating. Even if he got support from PPP , the volume would not be more than 4-5 thousand votes maximum.He attracted the vote bank of Ijaz Khan Jazi(PTI) who got 12000 votes in last action and ended up around 7000 in this election , he got votes from religious factions , he got votes from those supporters who didn't come out in 2008 election to vote for him.He in his personal capacity has a vote bank of around 25-30,000 in this constituency and some 4000 votes from PTI , 5000 from JUI/JI/TNFJ and some 5000 votes from PPP can take him to 45,000 which he got in last.

Conclusion :

So over all it was a good brave heart effort from Sheikh Rasheed and i must respect and appreciate his will , against the ruling party and against all such realities which were favoring PML(n).
I do not believe that his game is over now.No , Not at all , he has been an influential person in Pakistani Politics and if he reconsider his standing specially his party usefulness than certainly he can bounce back in next general elections.

I would personally suggest to Sheikh Rasheed to join a political party to increase his vote bank , Otherwise it would again be a hard contest for him.
Its not only about people of Rawalpindi , People of Pakistan wants to se him in politics , arguing with his unique style , he is certainly a popular parliamentarian who can really benefit his people if works with honesty.We have so few middle class political workers in punjab and at least i do not want to see a political death of middle class politician in Punjab.

Note :

This is my personal opinion , not my party position on Sheikh Rasheed :-)